Three Years Until Full HD 3DTV
Pay TV operators will monitor the acceptance of 3D services closely next year to decide whether consumers are going to be satisfied with the early ‘side-by-side’ 3D experiences or if they need full resolution 1080p video to each eye.
Pioneering services from BSkyB and DIRECTV will use existing set-top boxes, but that means sharing the full HD resolution between each eye. According to Gary Gutknecht, Vice President Hybrid STBs, Connect Division at Technicolor (formerly Thomson), “The outstanding question is whether consumers will notice the difference between side-by-side and the full resolution 3D and, if they do, how much more are they willing to pay for the better experience.”
Platform operators are expected to tread carefully with 3DTV, especially as those who made big investments in HDTV launches are now starting to enjoy the fruits of their labour – hitting the ‘sweet spot’ on these services, as Gutknecht puts it. “HD is starting to become the default product on some platforms. We should remember that satellite operators like DIRECTV offered a small number of HD channels in the beginning, using MPEG-2, before making a massive push for HD and investing in MPEG-4 AVC and DVB-S2.”
STMicroelectronics expects the first set-top boxes specifically designed for 3D video with optimised resolution and frame rate to start hitting the market in 2011. Gutknecht predicts 2011-12 for product availability to operators. He also thinks that as some silicon vendors are moving towards lower geometry chip technology and will reduce the size of their dies, they might consolidate decoder technology around a single 3D capable chipset rather than offer 2D and 3D versions.
This would mean that, depending on the silicon supplier, all high-end STBs going into the market from 2011-12 would be capable of supporting 3D, even if they are being shipped into non-3D homes (like for an SD to HD upgrade). Gutknecht predicts that if platform operators decide they do need full HD 3D, the most aggressive 3D proponents will start to offer this enhanced 3D experience between 2013 and 2015.
Gary Gutknecht believes 3DTV to the home can definitely become a mass-market and, as a major supplier to the content industry, Technicolor is investing to make the content creation process as easy as possible. Gutknecht views content availability as one of the three main barriers to 3D uptake and points to the likelihood of part-time 3D channels in the beginning and the need to avoid the ‘chicken-and-egg’ scenario where content creators wait for a market and consumers wait for the content.
Another obstacle is the television set upgrade cycle. Many consumers have only just made their big HD television purchase and will not be ready to buy a 3D-ready television set for some time. And lastly, it remains to be seen if consumers really want to watch hours of 3DTV at home wearing glasses, even if they are happy to spend two hours doing so at the cinema.
By John Moulding, Videonet
