Now Comes the Hard Part
I don’t think anyone will deny that CES 2010 was the one where the inevitability of 3DTV was established. 3D was everywhere and the announcements from TV and service providers were impressive. We were expecting many of the announcements that were made at CES, but there were even more than we anticipated. This has driven interest in 3D to a fever pitch.
But beyond the euphoria and excitement lies the real challenge — bringing sets to market, starting 3D TV services and convincing consumers this is a real value proposition.
On the TV set front, we saw impressive demos from all the major TV makers like Panasonic, Samsung, Sony, LG, Sharp, Toshiba and Vizio. Content from a Blu-ray player or PS3 looked particularly good, but there were noticeable artifacts on some of the broadcast content.
No one would venture into the pricing game as each is waiting for the other to announce first. These sets will clearly be placed at the top of each company’s product line and will command premium pricing, but my guess is that the "3D premium" compared to an equivalent 240Hz LCD-TV (or high-end PDP) will be very modest.
Clearly, the vast majority of 3D TVs will be shutter glass based. Passive polarized solutions were shown by JVC, Hyundai and LG, but it is hard to see these being very competitive although their image quality is quite good. Mitsubishi’s Laser 3D TV looks good too, but it is too pricey for mainstream adoption (I am told an LCD 3DTV solution is coming from them, too).
TV makers will be offering varying numbers of glasses with their 3D TVs — from none to 1, 2 or even 4 sets of glasses. There was some news at CES from new entrants in the shutter glass market and we expect more, which will lead to improved styling, features and pricing. Nevertheless, pricing and compatibility will continue as an issue.
On the content delivery front, there were a slew of new announcements. Direct TV will offer pay-per-view, occasional and video-on-demand 3D channels. ESPN, Discovery and Turner broadcasting will also offer channels of 3D content. This is all good news for any consumer who wants to buy a 3DTV — they need content. But I know there remain huge challenges in actually rolling out these services. There are lots of operational issues to figure out and content to create to fill the pipeline. Expect lots of repeat programming in the beginning and some glitches as the service providers figure this out.
Another debate is emerging as to the use of real time 2D-to-3D converted content. All acknowledge this is not as good as native stereo content, but some (Samsung and Toshiba) plan to include this capability in their TVs. This will allow any content to be viewed in 3D — with both good and bad ramifications. The good part is that there will be content. The bad part is that the less-than-top quality of this content has the potential to turn off viewers.
This ability of ordinary consumers to see the difference between converted and native 3D content is another area of contention. I believe that many consumers can see the difference and will not find converted content very acceptable. There will clearly be other consumers who don’t see the difference and will love the converted content (how many consumers are still watching SD content on their HDTVs and love it?). The question is the size of these two groups, for which I don’t have a firm answer.
Finally, the consumer needs to see a value proposition in owning a 3D TV. I am often asked if consumers will wear the "goofy glasses", and my answer is yes, for event-driven viewing. That is, wearing glasses to watch a movie, a sporting event or concert will not be an issue for most. You will not wear them to watch all your content in 3D, i.e., the news.
The other key issue is the consumer’s ability or desire to buy a 3DTV. Most have only recently purchased an HDTV and a Blu-ray player. While some Blu-ray players will be firmware upgraded to support 3D signaling, you will have to buy a new 3D TV (except in the case of recent vintage DLP TVs where a new converter box will do the trick). Are consumers ready to consign their new 30", 40" or 50" TV to the den, so they can buy a new 3D TV? Some may, but many will wait a few years and this will clearly slow sales. Many may want 3D, but just won’t pull the trigger. And, there will be some percentage that thinks 3D is just plain dumb and they just won’t wear glasses. How big is this group?
By Chris Chinnock, Display Daily
