3DTV will be Mass-Market Faster than HDTV
3DTV will become a mass-market proposition faster than it took HDTV to achieve the same status, according to Michelle Abraham, Principal Analyst at market intelligence company In-Stat, who authored a report on 3DTV to be published this month. One of the key factors will be the availability of 3D movies for Blu-ray players and another is the determination of CE giants to use their influence on all parts of the content to consumer value chain, from professional 3D production to enabling 3D content creation in the home with 3D camcorders and digital still cameras.
According to Abraham, the single biggest challenge for 3DTV is consumer awareness - making sure that people know this is not something just for the cinema. “The retailers need to come up with beautiful 3D demonstration settings where someone walking into the store, even if they are looking for something completely different, sees 3DTV and thinks ‘Wow’.”
Referring to reports that some consumers could not see the difference between HDTV and SD, or between Blu-ray and DVD, Abraham says there is no room for doubt when you add another dimension. “That is one thing that will really help because the difference from HDTV is very obvious. You put on a pair of glasses and you see it differently.”
In-Stat has noted that the growing number of 3D cinemas and movie releases will give more people the chance to enjoy 3D content, boosting demand for home services. Based on a survey of US consumers, Abraham confirms: “There was a definite interest in 3D in the home, more so by those who had seen more 3D movies in theatres.”
The availability of 3D TVs is encouraging content producers to boost their efforts to shoot and broadcast live events, particularly sports, in 3D. However, Abraham thinks Blu-ray is currently the key to driving demand in the home.
Graham Lovelace, Director at Lovelace Consulting Limited, who managed the UK’s first industry consultation on broadcast 3DTV for the Digital TV Group in April 2009, agrees 3D Blu-ray will be important. He also highlights the role of 3D games consoles in bringing 3D experiences home. Lovelace believes 3DTV will be a mass-market proposition within the next decade based “on the likely assumption that viewers react positively to initial services, and so long as those services continue to improve as new technologies allow.”
Perhaps not surprisingly, In-Stat discovered that the cost of 3DTV is a big challenge for consumers. Abraham notes: “Most people said they would be willing to pay in the range of a few hundred dollars more for a TV set with 3D, and they don’t want to pay too much more for Blu-ray players.”
Glasses could be another sticking point. In fact, Graham Lovelace believes the main consumer challenge for a first generation broadcast 3DTV service is persuading people to wear the polarized or active shutter glasses for home viewing. “That could deter mass consumer take-up,” he cautions.
But for Lovelace, the bigger challenges lie in the content arena: producing high quality 3D content for the TV screen requires new skills to be mastered. But he thinks 3DTV ticks two important boxes when it comes to the business model. Yes, HD Pay TV subscribers are likely to pay more for 3D and yes, 3DTV is likely to be a premium advertising proposition for commercial broadcasters. “The question is …by how much?” he asks.
For platform operators, 3D provides a chance to differentiate their consumer offering, increase average revenues per household and reduce churn. “Satellite in the form of BSkyB in the UK has every chance of being an early winner since it has the broadcast bandwidth and installed base of HD receivers, but cable and those telcos operating IPTV services via managed high-speed networks also stand to benefit,” says Lovelace.
Lovelace Consulting believes that while digital terrestrial platforms will be bandwidth-constrained, they can use broadband downloads to deliver 3D content to hybrid broadcast-broadband PVRs. “But such over-the-top delivery requires UK migration to high-speed networks, and that will take several years.”
Where DTT bandwidth is available to dedicate to broadcast 3DTV, it is being predicted that platform operators could achieve four 3DTV services per 8MHz ‘channel’ of frequency as the most likely technology outcome by 2020. Satellite operators offering 3DTV can expect to dedicate around 10 Mb/s of bandwidth to each channel by 2020 and achieve five 3D channels per transponder. These projections come from technology consultancy ZetaCast in a report for UK regulator Ofcom and are based on the most likely of several technology scenarios.
By John Moulding , Videonet
