3D: If We Build It, Will They Come?

LG on June 18 unveiled a 3D (or we should say a stereoscopic) version of its popular 50-inch LCD high-def TV unit. This 3D model is now added to other similar devices from Hyundai and most other major players. 3D, for the set-manufacturers, is undoubtedly their next major thrust as well as delivering better retail margins and a touch of consumer sparkle at trade shows and the like.

Moreover, we are all aware of the considerable push towards 3D being made by BSkyB, NHK, Fox, NBC, Turner and other broadcasters. But is 3D more than a ‘Field of Dreams’? If it’s built, will the punters buy? Or will we get a ruinous ‘standards battle’ into the process?

The world recognises that 3D in the cinema makes sound commercial sense, despite significant extra production costs. But will this enthusiasm transfer into broadcasting’s strictly 2D world? The question has been examined in a major study by Screen Digest’s Global Media Intelligence (GMI) division, and the report pulls no punches. GMI’s most positive scenario makes somewhat depressing reading, stating that just over 15% of total TV sets installed worldwide could be 3D-capable by 2015. The other end of the scale, its worst-case scenario, suggests the number could be nearer 3%, which is — at best — niche.

The UK’s influential Digital Television Group (DTG) in its recent 3D study found two distinct camps: One informal grouping advocates a wait and see approach with common and agreed standards at its core. The other view, firmly backed by BSkyB, is to start transmissions as soon as possible, using established HD protocols, existing set-top boxes and well-understood camera and transmission standards.

The DTG will host a seminar in London this September to discuss the options, and the topic will figure in a number of sessions at IBC. “Whoever goes first could set the standards not just for the UK but possibly the rest of Europe,” said DTG director general Richard Lindsay-Davies. “It is our job to try to create both a commercial and technical balance.”

BskyB’s view, at least according to Brian Lenz, its head of new product and design, is to be more aggressive. “Harnessing existing capabilities clearly has the potential to lead to an earlier introduction of initial 3D services, which is good for both consumers and the industry alike. By validating the demand for 3D through this approach, you would have to assume that this would [also] serve to highlight the demand for free-to-air, non-HD propositions further down the line.”

GMI’s study backs the adoption of consistent standards, saying 3D’s take-up could then be much better. “Cross-platform standardisation would drive rapid uptake, with the percentage of sets sold with 3D capability worldwide reaching 32% in 2015.”

The GMI study also reminds us that several broadcasters have conducted 3D trials but developments in 3D TV programming are a long way behind 3D movies. Fox Sports and Turner Sports have utilised 3D cinema screens for special events. Fox showed a college football game in 3D at select cinemas in January 2009. Other broadcasters have focused on promoting 3D using existing displays. NBC, for instance, has experimented with anaglyph 3D broadcasting. In February 2009, the network transmitted a 90-second preview of DWA 3D movie Monsters vs. Aliens in ColorCode’s anaglyph format during a Super Bowl commercial break. According to NBC, 150 million pairs of the glasses required to view the ad in 3D were distributed free ahead of the event. NBC subsequently broadcast an episode of its TV series Chuck in the same format, encouraging viewers to re-use the 3D glasses.

Perhaps the most enthusiastic current 3D broadcasting is in Japan where NHK, since 2007, has used its BS-11 satellite system to transmit 20 or so minutes a day of sport and travel programming in stereoscopic 3D.

3D ARPU
But the TV industry already has its own Trojan Horse, in the shape of 3D games, stresses GMI: “The requirement for 3D glasses might be less of an issue for gamers, given their willingness to adopt peripherals, although the interactive nature of video games (as opposed to the passive experience of movie and TV viewing) presents some unique issues for 3D. Sony’s aforementioned demonstrations offered a compelling example of 3D versions of games with fixed-camera viewpoints, such as first-person and driving experiences.”

But what do we know of broadcaster’s strategies as far as 3D is concerned? It is recognised that Japan’s leading broadcasters see 3D as a methodology for pushing the creative envelope that bit further, which is no doubt why they are also backing 4k transmission. All agree that 3D could generate extra revenues, and there’s nobody more focused on Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) than BSkyB.

While BSkyB has hinted that it could replicate the top-up subscription fees it charges for its HD channels for 3D, Sky also noted that advertisers have declared an interest in potential for 3D commercials so this could represent another opportunity to generate incremental revenue.

But the study warns that there is not yet a consensus in Hollywood around the potential for a mark-up on 3D content. “Lessons from format wars like HD DVD and BD, VHS and Betamax or transmission standardisation towards MPEG suggests that the market will not tolerate multiple 3D standards. Which format is chosen may ultimately preclude some of the technologies currently touted, while the process of standardising is likely to face a lengthy period of lobbying from proprietary technologies and their associated vendor groups to determine which, if any, get a major share of this market,” warns GMI.

By Chris Forrester, TVB Europe