3D Could Be Bigger Than HD, and Will Drive Blu-ray Sales
3D could be bigger than HD, and Blu-ray will be one of the primary beneficiaries and drivers of 3D. That is the forecast of Mike Fisher, senior consultant at Futuresource Consulting.
“3D is back,” Fisher said at the recent Driving Digital Content 2009 FutureSource Market Focus Session in London entitled The 3D Landscape. With “every single key player and key element” in theatrical, home entertainment, TV, PC, and videogame markets “vested” and “ready to support the 3D story” and “drive 3D forward,” Fisher said 3D represents a “massive opportunity.”
“One could argue that this is even more of a big opportunity than the high-definition story.” Already, 16% of U.S. adults have seen a 3D movie at a theater, with 40% preferring 3D to 2D, and 50% of adults saying that special glasses would not deter them from purchasing a 3D TV.
Fisher reminded the audience of the potential, with 200 million TVs sold every year around the world. “Let's not forget the PC side and the gaming side; gaming consoles is another factor that will come into play as well.”
The relationship between 3D and Blu-ray will be reciprocal, with 3D not only driving sales of Blu-ray, but Blu-ray will be a “very significant driver for 3D moving forward.”
“A key driver of 3D and one of the key players is the Blu-ray format and the BDA (Blu-ray Disc Association) standard moving forward,” Fisher said.
Those standards for home video and TV are now being developed and finalized during what Fisher called the introductory phase of 3D from 2009-2011, as he noted that 3D has become the leading story at every major industry trade show this year.
“Quite a few of the large TV manufacturers will begin to seed the market with 3D-enabled TVs in 2010,” he said. After which the market “really ramps up in 2012” when “standards will be organized by then” and the “broadcasting industry comes a lot more on stream with 3D.” About 12% of U.S. households will have 3D-enabled TVs by 2012, he said.
Meanwhile, the theatrical 3D market is the primary distributor of 3D, where movies such as Monsters Vs Aliens generated two-thirds of its opening weekend revenue from 3D screens. More than 30 3D movies are slated for theatrical release over the next couple of years.
By Scott Hettrick, Hollywood in Hi-Def
